Recent Developments in the Climate Change Discussions and the Indian Case – Tirthankar Mandal
Climate
change has put before the global community an epochal development and
environmental challenge. The overriding complexity of the problem is
attributed to its deeper global ramifications on a vast range of issues
impacting the very survival of life on Earth. Understanding such a complex
issue with vast and varied dimensions and implications, assumes greater
significance for all stakeholders, especially for our policy makers. There are
varieties of perceptions regarding the exact size and consequences of climate
change. Yet, it is no secret that risks emanating from climate change are
indeed profound, which call for urgent mitigation. India, in this whole milieu
of things and complexities, is in a very tricky situation and faces a
multiplicity of challenges. On one hand India is home to a large number of poor
and vulnerable people in the world rendering itself to be affected adversely by
the impacts of climate change, and on the other, to meet the development needs,
India has been arguing that it needs emission space for GHGs for the time to
come in future. This brings to the forefront the question of prioritizing
development versus meeting climate change obligations. In the domain of climate change negotiations,
developing countries, including India have been arguing for the right to
develop, which in turn requires emission space to meet the goals of development. This then requires a share of the burden of
emission reductions between the group of developed and developing countries in
order to avoid violating the planetary boundary limits in future.
The following figure (Figure 1) shows a
global emission pathway (red line) consistent with a reasonable probability of
keeping warming below 2°C (It assumes a budget of about 1,700 billion tons of
carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) for the first half of the 21st century, which
still carries an unsettlingly high one-in-four chance that warming will exceed
2°C. It also shows an Annex 1 emission pathway (blue), with the Annex 1
countries undertaking ambitious mitigation actions, sufficient to drive
emissions down by 40 per cent by 2020 and 90 per cent by 2050 (relative to 1990
emission levels). Having stipulated a global trajectory and an Annex 1
trajectory, simple subtraction reveals the carbon budget (shown in green) that
would remain to support the South’s development. Despite the apparent
stringency of the Annex 1 trajectory, the atmospheric space remaining for
developing countries would be alarmingly small. Developing country emissions
would have to peak only a few years later than those in the North – still
before 2020 – and then decline by nearly 90 per cent by 2050. And this would
have to take place while most of the South’s citizens are still struggling to
maintain or improve their livelihoods and raise their material living
standards.
global emission pathway (red line) consistent with a reasonable probability of
keeping warming below 2°C (It assumes a budget of about 1,700 billion tons of
carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) for the first half of the 21st century, which
still carries an unsettlingly high one-in-four chance that warming will exceed
2°C. It also shows an Annex 1 emission pathway (blue), with the Annex 1
countries undertaking ambitious mitigation actions, sufficient to drive
emissions down by 40 per cent by 2020 and 90 per cent by 2050 (relative to 1990
emission levels). Having stipulated a global trajectory and an Annex 1
trajectory, simple subtraction reveals the carbon budget (shown in green) that
would remain to support the South’s development. Despite the apparent
stringency of the Annex 1 trajectory, the atmospheric space remaining for
developing countries would be alarmingly small. Developing country emissions
would have to peak only a few years later than those in the North – still
before 2020 – and then decline by nearly 90 per cent by 2050. And this would
have to take place while most of the South’s citizens are still struggling to
maintain or improve their livelihoods and raise their material living
standards.
Figure 1: Global Limits of
2 Degree C Pathways
Source: Kartha (2011)[1]
Recent Developments in the Climate Change
Policymaking:
Policymaking:
There has been lot of focus on the reductions of
emissions originating from the big developing countries such as China, India,
Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, and Philippines to name a few, on the premise
that the recent emissions have seen a larger growth in these countries due to
their increased economic activities, and also in future these are the regions
where the emission is going to grow most. At the same time it has been observed
that the ambition of the global community has been on downward spiral with each
passing climate Conference of Parties (COP) every year (Khor 2013)[2]. This
happened at the backdrop where almost each and every global climate research agency
depicted a picture of increasingly threatened world in the future. For the
developing countries, each COPs turned out to be baby steps while the world
required quantum of progress to avoid the catastrophic climate change.
emissions originating from the big developing countries such as China, India,
Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, and Philippines to name a few, on the premise
that the recent emissions have seen a larger growth in these countries due to
their increased economic activities, and also in future these are the regions
where the emission is going to grow most. At the same time it has been observed
that the ambition of the global community has been on downward spiral with each
passing climate Conference of Parties (COP) every year (Khor 2013)[2]. This
happened at the backdrop where almost each and every global climate research agency
depicted a picture of increasingly threatened world in the future. For the
developing countries, each COPs turned out to be baby steps while the world
required quantum of progress to avoid the catastrophic climate change.
On one hand, the developed countries are
increasingly getting non-committal about their commitments for emission reduction
as required by science and on the other there has been increased pressure by
the global communities for enhanced emission reductions by the large developing
countries due to their current emission growth. On another count, the developed
countries have been also non-committal on the support through finance and
technology for the developing countries to take up enhanced actions on climate
change. This has resulted in breach of trust between the developed and the
developing countries to develop a global effort sharing mechanism through these
negotiations.
increasingly getting non-committal about their commitments for emission reduction
as required by science and on the other there has been increased pressure by
the global communities for enhanced emission reductions by the large developing
countries due to their current emission growth. On another count, the developed
countries have been also non-committal on the support through finance and
technology for the developing countries to take up enhanced actions on climate
change. This has resulted in breach of trust between the developed and the
developing countries to develop a global effort sharing mechanism through these
negotiations.
In this milieu, the Indian stand in the climate
change negotiations is often being questioned. India is among those countries
of the world, which has seen exponential growth in its current emission of GHG
(Dubash 2009)[3].
Indian position has been rooted in the belief that the focus of burden sharing
should be based on equitable and fair principles of global effort sharing. The
core of this argument, according to India, lies in the historical
responsibility of developed countries that have occupied bulk of the
atmospheric space due to the emissions of the past. Due to this skewed situation, coupled with
rising trends of future emissions, India has been demanding a deep cut from the
developed countries to compensate their past emissions. This will ensure that
adequate atmospheric space is available for the developing countries like India
to grow and meet their developmental needs. In this regard it is also necessary to put the
bigger picture of emissions scenarios against the context of developmental
needs and climate change.
change negotiations is often being questioned. India is among those countries
of the world, which has seen exponential growth in its current emission of GHG
(Dubash 2009)[3].
Indian position has been rooted in the belief that the focus of burden sharing
should be based on equitable and fair principles of global effort sharing. The
core of this argument, according to India, lies in the historical
responsibility of developed countries that have occupied bulk of the
atmospheric space due to the emissions of the past. Due to this skewed situation, coupled with
rising trends of future emissions, India has been demanding a deep cut from the
developed countries to compensate their past emissions. This will ensure that
adequate atmospheric space is available for the developing countries like India
to grow and meet their developmental needs. In this regard it is also necessary to put the
bigger picture of emissions scenarios against the context of developmental
needs and climate change.
In the latest reports from the UNEP (2012)[4] and UNFCCC
(2013)[5], it has
been observed that the countries are falling short of the emissions as required
by science. Even if the developed countries meet their higher end of the
targets there would be substantial gap in meeting the levels of emissions
reductions as required by science. This brings us back to the situation where
the developing countries would need to take up ambitious emissions reductions
for keeping the limits of temperature rise to 2 degree C of the pre-industrial
level. Therefore, countries like India and others need to enhance their
emission reduction efforts to meet the gap. India has been arguing that
development goals are priority and the developed countries must take up the
lead in emission reductions.
(2013)[5], it has
been observed that the countries are falling short of the emissions as required
by science. Even if the developed countries meet their higher end of the
targets there would be substantial gap in meeting the levels of emissions
reductions as required by science. This brings us back to the situation where
the developing countries would need to take up ambitious emissions reductions
for keeping the limits of temperature rise to 2 degree C of the pre-industrial
level. Therefore, countries like India and others need to enhance their
emission reduction efforts to meet the gap. India has been arguing that
development goals are priority and the developed countries must take up the
lead in emission reductions.
The issues of emission reductions efforts by
countries are based on the principles and provisions of the Convention. Of late
India has been championing the cause of equitable sharing of emission
reductions burden based on the principles of the Convention. This has been the
core fundamental of the agreement at Durban in 2011. However, the Durban
agreement marks a shift from what India has been arguing till recently that the
current cause of emissions and adverse changes in the climate are more due to
the stock of carbon and GHGs that has been accumulated historically and not
because of the current emissions and therefore, the developed countries should
take the onus of reductions. The Durban agreement adopts a stance which
iterates that the principles of equity in efforts to reduce the emissions
should rule the emissions reductions paradigm of the future. In this regard,
however, India has not come forward with a proposal about how to operationalize
the principles of equity as laid down in the Convention which will meet the
objectives of development and also keep the global emissions under admissible
levels. It is seen by the global community as tactics to delay the
negotiations, but there is no denial of the fact that the developed countries
have also not lived up to their leadership role as they are supposed to be
doing.
countries are based on the principles and provisions of the Convention. Of late
India has been championing the cause of equitable sharing of emission
reductions burden based on the principles of the Convention. This has been the
core fundamental of the agreement at Durban in 2011. However, the Durban
agreement marks a shift from what India has been arguing till recently that the
current cause of emissions and adverse changes in the climate are more due to
the stock of carbon and GHGs that has been accumulated historically and not
because of the current emissions and therefore, the developed countries should
take the onus of reductions. The Durban agreement adopts a stance which
iterates that the principles of equity in efforts to reduce the emissions
should rule the emissions reductions paradigm of the future. In this regard,
however, India has not come forward with a proposal about how to operationalize
the principles of equity as laid down in the Convention which will meet the
objectives of development and also keep the global emissions under admissible
levels. It is seen by the global community as tactics to delay the
negotiations, but there is no denial of the fact that the developed countries
have also not lived up to their leadership role as they are supposed to be
doing.
Providing support in the form of finance and
technology for undertaking climate actions in the developing countries has been
at the core to develop a fair and equitable mechanism globally. In this case as
well, the developed countries have performed miserably. Except for setting up
structures of global finance and technology mechanism there has been little
progress over the last few years. Further, the global finance mechanism and the
technology mechanism is seen as a half-baked cake as they do not have the
adequate amount of funding available for supporting actions in the developing
countries. This has not gone down well with the countries like India, China,
and other big developing countries as they consider this as breach of trust
from the developed country counterparts.
technology for undertaking climate actions in the developing countries has been
at the core to develop a fair and equitable mechanism globally. In this case as
well, the developed countries have performed miserably. Except for setting up
structures of global finance and technology mechanism there has been little
progress over the last few years. Further, the global finance mechanism and the
technology mechanism is seen as a half-baked cake as they do not have the
adequate amount of funding available for supporting actions in the developing
countries. This has not gone down well with the countries like India, China,
and other big developing countries as they consider this as breach of trust
from the developed country counterparts.
What could be done in future?
The most important deficiency in the system is
the lack of political will and trust among the countries. On one hand the
developed countries have been minimally ambitious in putting the targets of
emission reductions for their own, and on the other, putting pressure on the
developing countries to meet the gap that is emerging on the premise that the
current emission for these developing countries are more than their own share.
Secondly, the developed countries have not performed on allocating funds and
technology support for climate actions in the developing countries. Therefore whenever a discussion on emission
reduction happens within the climate regime, the developed countries have
failed to assure the developing countries about science-based actions to save
the global community from catastrophes.
the lack of political will and trust among the countries. On one hand the
developed countries have been minimally ambitious in putting the targets of
emission reductions for their own, and on the other, putting pressure on the
developing countries to meet the gap that is emerging on the premise that the
current emission for these developing countries are more than their own share.
Secondly, the developed countries have not performed on allocating funds and
technology support for climate actions in the developing countries. Therefore whenever a discussion on emission
reduction happens within the climate regime, the developed countries have
failed to assure the developing countries about science-based actions to save
the global community from catastrophes.
The global community should involve in a
discussion that would identify the operationalization of equitable effort
sharing mechanism in emission reductions. For India, it could mean coming out
with clear vision of emission reductions which will state its priorities both
globally and internationally. Also the actions it has been undertaking recently
under various fronts should be properly communicated. Currently the country is
seen as obstructionist force. It therefore requires changing the views towards
becoming constructionist one and also not compromising on the developmental
goals it has set for countries.
discussion that would identify the operationalization of equitable effort
sharing mechanism in emission reductions. For India, it could mean coming out
with clear vision of emission reductions which will state its priorities both
globally and internationally. Also the actions it has been undertaking recently
under various fronts should be properly communicated. Currently the country is
seen as obstructionist force. It therefore requires changing the views towards
becoming constructionist one and also not compromising on the developmental
goals it has set for countries.
India needs to change its strategy for
communicating to the world about its actions on climate change and its
obligations domestically. The global community has been getting mixed views
about the country. On one hand India has been claiming the inability to
undertake deeper cuts on the premise of immediate development needs and lack of
capacity, on the other, it wants to evolve as global power. Being a global
power send a different signal about the overall capacity and capability of a
country. In the domain of climate change this positioning of India is slightly
problematic and should be more strategic. It should clearly lay down the
actions it has been undertaking and communicate to the world about its
intention to undertake further actions with appropriate conditionality so that
it need not compromise on the development goals.
communicating to the world about its actions on climate change and its
obligations domestically. The global community has been getting mixed views
about the country. On one hand India has been claiming the inability to
undertake deeper cuts on the premise of immediate development needs and lack of
capacity, on the other, it wants to evolve as global power. Being a global
power send a different signal about the overall capacity and capability of a
country. In the domain of climate change this positioning of India is slightly
problematic and should be more strategic. It should clearly lay down the
actions it has been undertaking and communicate to the world about its
intention to undertake further actions with appropriate conditionality so that
it need not compromise on the development goals.
Finally, India should build strategic alliances
with the countries from the blocs like Small Island states, LDCs, and other
vulnerable countries as they form a substantial force within the G77 and China
which India is also part of. This would ensure that the predicaments of India
are well understood and we can avoid a situation where these countries stood
firmly behind the collective positions of G77 and China at the negotiations.
One of the fears the vulnerable groups of countries from Small Islands, LDCs
perceive is that the big developing countries will attract all the
international climate finance available and this fear needs to be addressed at
the earliest to keep the coalition of the developing countries intact so that
adequate pressure can be put against the low level of ambition for the
developed countries. This is a situation where developing countries cannot
afford to be seen as a divided house.
with the countries from the blocs like Small Island states, LDCs, and other
vulnerable countries as they form a substantial force within the G77 and China
which India is also part of. This would ensure that the predicaments of India
are well understood and we can avoid a situation where these countries stood
firmly behind the collective positions of G77 and China at the negotiations.
One of the fears the vulnerable groups of countries from Small Islands, LDCs
perceive is that the big developing countries will attract all the
international climate finance available and this fear needs to be addressed at
the earliest to keep the coalition of the developing countries intact so that
adequate pressure can be put against the low level of ambition for the
developed countries. This is a situation where developing countries cannot
afford to be seen as a divided house.
[1] Kartha, S (2011): Discourses—Global South, in Oxford
Handbook of Climate Change and Society edited by John S. Dryzek, Richard B. Norgaard, & David Schlosberg
Handbook of Climate Change and Society edited by John S. Dryzek, Richard B. Norgaard, & David Schlosberg
[2] Khor, M (2013): Doha 2012: A Climate Conference of Low
Ambitions, Economic and Political Weekly, Jan 12, 2013, XLVIII No.2
Ambitions, Economic and Political Weekly, Jan 12, 2013, XLVIII No.2
[3] Dubash, N (2009): Climate Politics in India: Toward a
Progressive Global and Indian Politics, Working Paper (2009/1), CPR Initiative, CPR, New Delhi.
Progressive Global and Indian Politics, Working Paper (2009/1), CPR Initiative, CPR, New Delhi.
[4]UNEP 2012: The Emissions Gap Report 2012. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi
[5] UNFCCC (2013):
